Armchair Analyst: Tactical preview of Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City in Thursday's Knockout Round

This was the year of parity in MLS. All 20 teams suffered 10 or more losses, and the gap between 3rd and 16th places was a scant 12 points. That's one good month, or a couple of well-planned two-game weeks. That's a hamstring injury to your best player or an adductor strain to somebody else's. That's a couple of set pieces here or there.

The gap in the brutal and bloody Western Conference is even thinner, with two points separating Nos. 2-6. Perhaps no teams were more even than the Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City, who played 270 minutes against each other this season and produced, between the two of them, a single goal: Krisztián Németh's slaloming golazo in Providence Park on October 3, good for a 1-0 SKC win.

He and Sporting return to the scene of the crime on Thursday night (10 pm ET; UniMás in US; TSN1/4/5 in Canada).

The Trends: Portland have won three straight and four of five, with that loss to Sporting their only blemish down the stretch. They've been particularly rampant in their last two, posting 5-2 and 4-1 wins at LA and over Colorado, respectively.

Sporting led the league in mid-August, but fatigue caught up with them and they've crashed - hard - going 3-7-2 in their last dozen regular season games.

What Portland Will Do: Get the ball on Darlington Nagbe's foot

Portland's recent trend is really more of a three-game winning streak than the four-wins-in-five, and the catalyst for this recent run has been moving erstwhile winger Nagbe to central midfield. Whether it's been ahead of a lone holding midfield or as a true No. 10 in a 4-2-3-1, Nagbe has been jaw-droppingly effective and efficient over the last 270 minutes.

He doesn't turn the ball over, and he does create tons of shots:

You can give the ball to Nagbe in traffic and be pretty certain he'll do something good with it. So that's what Portland's game plan is now. There's no reason to expect that to change, no matter what kind of lineup or formation Caleb Porter goes with.

How to solve it: Push him to the flanks

Nagbe has been miscast as a winger over the last few years, and part of that is his own inclination to sometimes avoid the responsibility that cames with being a central midfielder. Watch him move off the ball, and he doesn't "wow" you: He'll find safe spots for outlets, rather than getting into the teeth of the opposing midfield and demanding the ball in high-leverage positions.

He's started changing that mindset, but until recently it seemed pretty clear that if you show hard on him early you could sort of convince him that maybe finding the ball on the touchline is a better idea. I'd expect that to be Paulo Nagamura's (or Mikey Lopez's) prime directive for Sporting.

Meanwhile, Soni Mustivar has to be his usual destructive self at d-mid:

What Sporting will do: Play through the lines

Portland are often a low-block defensive team, even at home. They'll let you have some of the ball, and when Sporting are in that spot, they have to do this:

Pulling the defense from side to side opens up gaps, and SKC have been somewhat reluctant to shoot them in recent months, either via the dribble or the pass. It's not exactly the simplest thing in the world, but it's 100-percent necessary for this team to return to something like the form that had them atop the league on points per game into August.

Paradoxically, I think they're better when their No. 10, Benny Feilhaber, receives the ball deeper. Watch to see how far he drops.

How to solve it: Eliminate the options

One of Feilhaber's failings is that he'll start forcing passes if he gets frustrated, and if you prevent Sporting's fullbacks from overlapping, you will limit his options and build that frustration.

This is going to call for some work on both sides of the ball out of Rodney Wallace and Lucas Melano, who are likely to start on the wings for the Timbers. They'll have to own Sporting's fullbacks, whoever those may be.

Portland's recent run is legit. They've hit on something different and devastating in (finally) moving Nagbe central, they have a staunch home defense and Fanendo Adi should be able to overpower Matt Besler and Kevin Ellis.

The Timbers should win comfortably.