Welcome back to my Thursday Q&A series, where I pick one particular topic to write about - today's being the early struggles of the New England Revolution, last year's MLS Cup finalists from the Eastern Conference - and focus primarily upon that.
However... you should feel free to ask about anything game-related (MLS, USL, NASL, USMNT, Canadian MNT, whatever) in the comments section below, and I'll be around for the next several hours to answer your questions.
I ran the Opta numbers on the New England Revolution. Sample size be damned.
The Revs have tumbled nearly to the bottom of the Power Rankings after back-to-back multi-goal road losses in Weeks 1 & 2, games in which they repeatedly threatened early before getting their doors blown off come the second half.
Please bear in mind this caveat for everything about the Revs right now:
On aggregate, the numbers didn't tell me much. New England still attempt and complete more passes in the final third than any other team in the league, and their accuracy continues to hover between 62 and 63 percent. They remain - save for the first half vs. NYCFC - allergic to crossing the ball. Their overall possession is once again just under 50 percent.
The only two outliers are their recoveries and their chances created from open play.
New England were middle of the pack in creating chances from open play last year; this season, through two games they're tied for second-from-last with the Earthquakes on a per-90 basis. Chalk it up to Lee Nguyen's absence in the season opener, and then a poor showing from him in Week 2 at New York City. If your No. 10 isn't able to do his thing, you're going to struggle.
The Revs' recoveries, however, are a more difficult mystery to solve. They were third from bottom in that stat last season; this year they're second from the top, even without the destructive box-to-box presence of Jermaine Jones (yet). You'd think that would be a good thing, and especially so because they're still forcing roughly the same number of turnovers in the attacking third. The Revs are a high pressure team, and they're still exerting exactly that.
The problem is their clean-up crew. Last season, New England were as good as anyone in the league when scrambling in defense, and became particularly adept at disrupting play in Zone 14, that area dead center in front of goal, 18 to 35ish yards out. Jones' addition helped, but just as important was the partnership between Jose Goncalves and A.J. Soares in central defense. One (usually Goncalves) would step into the play, almost as an ad hoc central midfielder, to either contest or outright win the ball, while the other would drop a little bit deeper.
It hasn't worked like that so far in 2015. Seattle completed 15 of their 16 passes there in Week 1:
In Week 2, NYCFC weren't quite as precise, but they basically set up shop, going 27 for 33. Their ability to combine right across the top of the box was spectacular, and only a top-shelf performance from Bobby Shuttleworth kept the scoreline acceptable:
With Soares gone, it's left Andrew Farrell with the job of partnering Goncalves, and through two games he's been exposed. Their rotations have been slow, and they're just bad at stopping the ball in front of the central defense. Through 180 minutes they have just 26 recoveries in Zone 14; In MLS Cup alone, they had 24 there.
So the numbers did, eventually, tell the story. As Andy said in that tweet above, it's early yet and this group of Revs have already shown the ability to dig themselves out of a hole. But right now they have a weakness in the exact spot where contenders are traditionally strongest.
Damningly small sample size or not, Revs fans are right to be worried.
Thanks for helping me muddle through yet another lovely Thursday. Check the comments section below to the back-and-forth, and come join me next week for another Q&A.
